The EPRAHub of the Department of Social and Political Sciences, in cooperation with NASP, is pleased to introduce the course

Process Tracing Methods: Approaches and Applications

Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos
University of Oxford
Visiting Professor at EPRAHub 

Juan Masullo
University of Milan

13-14 October 2025
Room A | NASP Graduate School
Via Pace, 10 - Milan

Course description
Within-case qualitative causal inference focuses on the analysis of processes leading to specific outcomes in individual cases. The analysis of causal processes within cases via the method of Process Tracing allows us to establish the steps, temporality, and direction of the causal relation under scrutiny, test theories that involve causal chains and mechanisms, and, in some versions of the method, adjudicate between competing explanations.

The course begins by introducing students to important conceptual distinctions. What are causal mechanisms and causal chains? How are these different from independent and intervening variables? What are the explanatory standards of mechanismic social science, and how do these differ from those of other research traditions? Why is process tracing suitable for testing theories that imply causal chains and mechanisms? 

We then examine the different ways in which scholars understand Process Tracing and related best practices, with reference to published work in Political Science. We will start with approaches that emphasize the importance of establishing productive continuity and achieving explanatory completeness, examining the implications of this variant of Process Tracing for theory specification and empirical testing. Next, we will examine explicit Bayesian approaches, evaluating the extent to which they differ from productive continuity approaches. Throughout these sessions, we will discuss how researchers ought to assess the probative value of the evidence they use for tracing processes and how they can align data collection during fieldwork with the demands and practices of process tracing. 

The course ends with two applied sessions. The first one explores how to use elite and non-elite interviews when conducting process tracing. The second is a workshop during which participants present and discuss theoretical models of causal processes, ideally related to their own dissertation projects.

This in-person course is open to PhD students, postdoc researchers, and faculty members from any institutional affiliation. Due to limited capacity (maximum 20 participants), priority will be given to NASP and Unimi students and staff.

For organizational purposes, registration via the form available at the following link is required by September 15:

https://www.nasp.eu/process-tracing-methods  

Programme

Day 1 | October 13, 2025

Session 1. h. 11.30 am - 1.00 pm
What is Process Tracing? Conceptual Building Blocks

Session 2. h. 2.30 pm - 4.00 pm
Varieties of Process Tracing I: The Completeness Standard Approach

Session 3. h. 4.30 pm - 6.00 pm
Public Lecture by Prof. Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos
The Historical Roots of Legal Mobilisation: Evidence from Land Rights Litigation in Argentina’s Northeast 

Day 2 | October 14, 2025

Session 4. h. 10.00 am - 11.30 am
Varieties of Process Tracing I: Assessing the Quality of Evidence to Achieve Completeness

Session 5. h. 11.45 am - 1.15 pm
Varieties of Process Tracing II: Explicit Bayesianism to Assess Probative Value and Adjudicate between Rival Explanations

Session 6. h. 2.30 pm - 4.00 pm
Aligning Interviews with Process Tracing

Session 7. h. 4.15 pm - 5.30 pm
Workshop: Theorising Causal Chains and Deriving Observable Implications

The full programme and the syllabus can be downloaded below.

The instructors

Ezequiel González Ocantos is Professor of Comparative & Judicial Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations, and a Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College. His primary research agenda is in the field of comparative judicial politics, with a specific focus on the determinants of judicial and prosecutorial behaviour in high-stakes cases of macro-criminality, including human rights violations and grand corruption.

Juan Masullo is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Milan and a member of the Amsterdam Conflict Research Network. His research focuses on political and criminal violence, especially in Latin America.

Ezequiel and Juan are the co-editors of QMMR, the biannual publication of the American Political Science Association (APSA) section on Qualitative and Mixed-Methods Research.